There is no concrete operational plan for the invasion of Lebanon, aside from a vague idea of dismantling Hezbollah infrastructure along the border and establishing a military “buffer zone” to allow displaced residents of northern Israel to return to their homes.
“What will be the depth of the invasion? How much will be cleared? We don’t know,” said Yaakov Amidror, a former major general and Israeli national security adviser. “It will be decided based on the achievements on the ground.”
As someone who spent the formative years of his life fighting in the nebulous American project that was the Global War on Terror, this language is all too familiar to me. Phrases like “The battlefield environment is dynamic, and mission requirements will flex to compensate for an evolving tactical situation” were common. It’s a reductive statement, but we all know how the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan ultimately turned out. They were dubbed “Forever Wars” precisely because there were no concretely defined and thus no achievable goals.
Israel’s Lebanon invasion will likely be no different. The IDF faces challenging terrain for an invading force, an enemy embedded in the land, willing to fight and die for it, and dwindling political goodwill in the international community. Moreover, the IDF is far less capable, disciplined, and powerful than the U.S. military. This invasion is likely doomed, following a trajectory similar to the strategic defeat Israel endured during its 2006 invasion. The reason is simple: Israel has not updated its military doctrine or tactics, techniques, and procedures in any substantive way since the mid-2000s.
Israel’s over-reliance on bombing campaigns, coupled with a lack of maneuverability and poor integration between combat arms—infantry, artillery, and armor—is being compensated for by an aggressive information operations campaign. The strategy is to create an image of Hezbollah’s defeat and portray absolute victory for Israel by highlighting short-term tactical successes. The assassination of Nasrallah is the most recent example of this propaganda effort.
Then there is the ongoing systemic issue within the Israeli Defense Force itself. Despite Israel’s highly militarized society, the IDF fundamentally lacks cohesive discipline, competence, training, and experience. At its core, it is a conscript-based army, with the majority of its reservists having only two years of military experience. In reality, they are closer to civilians than to professional soldiers.
To explore this point further within the context of the Lebanon invasion, we are joined tonight on State of Play by former United States Marine Corps Drill Instructor, Sgt. Zuleyka Morales. Morales volunteered to work with the Israeli Army, and as someone raised as a Pentecostal Zionist in Puerto Rico, she was taken aback by the IDF’s complete lack of discipline and military bearing. This stark reality began her process of unraveling the constructed myths surrounding the Israeli state, starting with the widely accepted myth of extreme military competence.
How can they possibly hope to prevail in the challenging operational environment of southern Lebanon if they can’t even manage the simple task of wearing boots, rather than flip flops, to morning formation?
Greg Stoker is a former US Army Ranger with a background in human intelligence collection and analysis. After serving four combat deployments in Afghanistan, he studied anthropology and International Relations at Columbia University. He is currently a military and geopolitical analyst and a social media “influencer,” though he hates the term.
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