(NEW YORK) MintPress — Friday’s “Friends of Syria” summit in Tunis was the first major international gathering there since the overthrow of President Ben Ali last year. The question is, will it be the tipping point for some action on Syria?
U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said she expected concrete progress in getting humanitarian relief to Syrians, increasing pressure on Bashar al-Assad to resign, preparing for a democratic transition of power and committing to enforcing sanctions aimed at pressuring Syrian authorities to halt the violence.
Harsh realities
Yet one key problem the leaders face is growing divisions within the opposition. There appears to be no mechanism in place for disparate groups to coordinate and agree on how to form a new government, as there was in Libya. The United States has disagreed with allies such as Qatar about taking measures to arm the opposition.
In addition, the foreign powers have limited options for taking tough action in Syria. Russia and China, both of which turned down invitations to the Tunis meeting, have rejected U.N. Security Council resolutions calling on Assad to step down.
Moscow maintains that the unrest should be resolved through negotiation between Damascus and the opposition, while Beijing has declared that it also wants to resolve the issue through dialogue with all of the parties involved.
Clinton Condemns China and Russia
Clinton has accused both countries of supporting the Syrian government for commercial purposes.
“Arab opinion is not going to be satisfied watching two nations, one for commercial reasons one for commercial and ideological reasons, bolstering a regime that is defying every rule of modern international norms,” she said on the eve of her departure for Tunis.
Russia is the biggest exporter of arms to Syria, with contracts worth at least $4 billion. Russian firms also have a major presence in Syria’s infrastructure, energy and tourism industries, and Moscow’s only Mediterranean naval base for its Black Sea Fleet is located in the Syrian port of Tartus.
Exports from China to Syria are worth roughly $2.2 billion a year. China is actively involved in Syria’s oil industry, and it has helped to build construction projects such as a textile mill and stadium.
On Friday, Clinton said she would be willing to go back to the U.N. as often as needed, “but we need to change the attitude of the Russian and Chinese governments.”
Ideological differences
That’s not likely to happen, because more than trade ties might be at stake. Moscow and Beijing are concerned that instead of the downfall of Assad leading to a democratic government, it could give rise to a radical Salafi Muslim regime.
Even U.S. officials have cautioned that there’s evidence that the more democratic elements in the opposition could be overpowered by radical forces backed by Saudi Arabia, including some who are allied with al-Qaeda in Iraq.
Ever since the outbreak of the Arab Spring, China and Russia have been worried about Saudi Arabia’s involvement in Egypt, Libya and now Syria. Many analysts believe that the Kingdom is not so much pro-democratization in these countries as pro-implementation of an extreme version of Islam called Salafism, also known as Wahhabism. And both Moscow and Beijing fear a breakdown in order in the Middle East could lead to one at home; both have restive Muslim minorities.
Kofi Annan to the rescue?
The U.N. General Assembly last week called for naming an envoy to push a peace plan asking Assad to step aside and, in response, U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon announced Thursday night that he would send former U.N. chief Kofi Annan to Syria as a joint U.N.-Arab League envoy.
Annan, a two-term secretary-general who stepped down in 2006, will “consult broadly” in order to “end the violence and the humanitarian crisis and facilitate a peaceful Syrian-led and inclusive political solution,” he said.
Both Russia and China have endorsed the move. A spokesman for theRussian Foreign Ministry, said Moscow is “ready for close cooperation” with Annan in his attempts to arrive at a peaceful resolution to the deepening crisis in Syria. “ A spokesman forChina’s foreign ministry stated: “China hopes that this will help push forward political dialogue and find a peaceful and proper resolution to the Syria issue.”
University of Notre Dame professor George Lopez said that Annan has no vested interest on either side of the conflict, making it difficult for anyone to claim he has an agenda other than averting an all out civil war in Syria.
But Annan, who was born in Ghana, has more experience in Africa than he does in the Middle East, and Assad has been unresponsive to appeals by other high level diplomats who have traveled to Damascus.
Clinton warned Assad on Thursday that the opposition will arm itself and overthrow him if diplomacy fails.
Humanitarian crisis
In the meantime, Syrian troops have continued their three-week bombardment of Homs, the country’s third-largest city.
U.N. investigators said on Thursday that Syrian forces have shot and killed unarmed women and children, shelled residential areas and tortured wounded protesters in hospitals under orders issued at the “highest levels” of the army and government.
In a report to the U.N. Human Rights Council, the commission said it had drawn up a confidential list of names of commanders and officials alleged to be responsible. The Council has called for an emergency meeting in Geneva next Tuesday.
In a sign that the crisis could drag on for some time, Turkey has said it will host the next “Friends of Syria” summit.