Iran’s retaliatory ballistic missile attack against Israel has sparked widespread condemnation from Western nations. These reactions have been accompanied by both denials of the strike’s effectiveness and suggestions that civilians were among the targets. However, video evidence and statements from Tehran’s military leadership present a different narrative.

The Iranian attack, dubbed “Operation True Promise 2,” involved the launch of approximately 180 ballistic missiles against three Israeli military air bases, according to official statements from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). The October 1 strike was met with widespread celebration across the Middle East as videos emerged showing dozens of missiles directly hitting targets near Tel Aviv and other locations.

Iran’s Defense Minister, Brigadier General Aziz Nasirzadeh, stated that the attack “was carried out with more than 90% success and was fully compliant with international laws.” However, Israel and the U.S. countered by claiming that the strike had targeted civilians and ultimately failed.

U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris issued a statement condemning Iran, claiming, “Israel, with our assistance, was able to defeat this attack.” She further stated that the alleged “successful cooperation saved many innocent lives.” Meanwhile, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer echoed this sentiment, condemning the strike and asserting that “the Iranian regime has launched over 200 ballistic missiles at civilian targets in Israel.”

However, Iran explicitly stated that its attack targeted military facilities exclusively, and video footage supports this claim, showing missiles primarily landing at these locations. The specific targets were Nevatim and Netzarim military bases, which are home to squadrons of F-35 and F-15 fighter jets, as well as the Tel Nof air base.

All the evidence seems to support Iran’s narrative, as no Israeli non-combatants were killed, and there are no indications that civilian sites were directly targeted. An analysis of the video evidence, published by The Washington Post, concluded that footage of two dozen hits on military targets is consistent with missile strikes, not debris from interceptor missiles. The analysis noted that 20 impacts were recorded at Nevatim air base in the Naqab desert, three at Tel Nof base south of Tel Aviv, with an additional two missiles falling short near Mossad headquarters.

While Iranian media has circulated various claims, including the elimination of half of Israel’s F-35 fighter jets, these reports have yet to be confirmed. However, emerging information does suggest such possibilities, though definitive evidence remains unavailable.

Israel has maintained strict military censorship throughout the war, even redacting articles in the Israeli media about the treatment of Palestinian prisoners. This heavy censorship makes it difficult to fully determine the specifics of recent events. However, there is now irrefutable evidence of direct hits on military infrastructure.

Satellite imagery released by Planet Labs revealed 32 distinct impact sites at the Nevatim air base. The evidence, including craters, damage to structures, and scorch marks, suggests that Iran’s missile strikes caused significant damage to hangars, buildings, and taxiways, and created a crater on one of the runways.

According to an analysis of the satellite imagery led by Jeffrey Lewis, a professor at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey, “if Nevatim is representative, that would suggest that more than half got through.”

On Wednesday, the Israeli military acknowledged that several office buildings and maintenance areas were struck inside Nevatim base. This admission contrasts sharply with Israeli army spokesperson Daniel Hagari’s initial assessment, which stated that “there were a small number of hits in the center of Israel and some other hits in the [sic] southern Israel.”

Although the Israeli government maintains that the attack was unsuccessful and did not disrupt their air force operations, the shift in tone following the release of irrefutable satellite images is telling. Shortly after the Iranian strike, Google users began noticing that images of Israeli territory had been blurred, making it difficult to assess potential damage. Notably, the U.S. has a unique law prohibiting commercial satellite imagery of Israeli territory, adding another layer of complexity to independent verification.

While Israel has yet to release a detailed breakdown of what it claims was a “successful” air defense operation, the usual post-operation transparency—such as publishing percentages of missiles intercepted—has been notably absent. This silence is uncharacteristic, especially after what would typically be presented as a success story.

 

Context Behind the Strikes

In contrast to the typical coverage of Israeli strikes on alleged Hezbollah and Hamas military targets in Lebanon and Gaza, CNN took a more critical stance regarding Iran’s potential targeting of Israeli military headquarters, emphasizing its placement within a densely populated civilian area.

While discrepancies exist in media coverage of Israeli strikes compared to those targeting Israel, significant context is often missing from the broader narrative.

Over the past year, tensions between Israel and Iran have escalated sharply. In December 2023, Israel assassinated Iranian military leaders, including IRGC commander Sayyed Razi Mousavi. In retaliation, Iran launched a ballistic missile strike on what it claimed was a Mossad headquarters in Iraq.

In January 2024, the Israeli Air Force conducted airstrikes on the Mezzeh neighborhood in Damascus, Syria, a densely populated area. The attack resulted in the deaths of five senior IRGC officials, along with a significant number of Syrian soldiers and civilians. Tehran chose not to retaliate at the time, as ceasefire negotiations regarding Gaza were underway.

In early April, Israel launched a series of airstrikes that targeted the consular section of Iran’s embassy in Damascus, resulting in the deaths of seven people. This unprecedented action prompted Iran to retaliate by firing around 300 drones and missiles, which targeted Israeli military sites as a warning. When the issue was raised before the United Nations Security Council (UNSC), both the United States and the United Kingdom expressed their support for Israel and blocked any condemnation of the Israeli airstrike in Damascus.

On July 31, Israel carried out the assassination of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, marking a significant violation of Iranian sovereignty. At the United Nations Security Council (UNSC), the United States and the United Kingdom once again aligned with Israel in response to the incident. According to Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, Western leaders had informed his government that if Iran refrained from retaliating for the assassination, they could help secure a ceasefire in Gaza. Pezeshkian has since called these assurances “outright lies,” pointing to Israel’s subsequent assassinations, attacks, and military operations in Lebanon.

The Iranian government had previously refrained from launching retaliatory strikes against Israel, expressing hope that diplomatic efforts could help end the conflict in Gaza. However, following Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s decision to expand military operations into Lebanon and amid heightened tensions with Iran, Tehran initiated Operation True Promise 2 in what appears to be a direct response.

Feature photo | Incoming missiles fired from Iran illuminate the Jerusalem sky, Oct. 1, 2024. Mahmoud Illean | AP

Robert Inlakesh is a political analyst, journalist and documentary filmmaker currently based in London, UK. He has reported from and lived in the occupied Palestinian territories and hosts the show ‘Palestine Files’. Director of ‘Steal of the Century: Trump’s Palestine-Israel Catastrophe’. Follow him on Twitter @falasteen47

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