It has now been one year since the October 7 attack, led by Hamas’ al-Qassam Brigades. There are two diametrically opposed versions of that day: the Israeli narrative and what the evidence suggests.
On October 7, at 6:30 a.m., the Qassam Brigades, the armed wing of Hamas, launched a military assault targeting Israeli military positions, Kibbutzim, and surrounding areas. According to a 16-page report issued by the group, titled “Our Narrative,” their stated mission was to attack Israeli military positions and seize captives to exchange for thousands of Palestinians held in Israeli prisons. The report also acknowledged certain “faults” in their actions.
Israel’s narrative claims that an unprovoked terrorist attack was launched against them, deliberately targeting civilians, including allegations of beheadings, burning, and dismemberment of babies, as well as a premeditated mass rape campaign. U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris described the events as “the worst atrocity against the Jewish people since the Holocaust.”
The Death Toll
On October 7, it was quickly reported that at least 413 Palestinians were killed in Israeli airstrikes across the Gaza Strip. However, the Israeli death toll underwent several revisions before an accurate figure emerged. Initially, the Israeli government stated that 1,400 Israelis had been killed. On November 10, 2023, this number was revised down to “around 1,200,” with officials attributing the discrepancy to difficulties in differentiating between Israeli and Palestinian bodies due to severe burns.
The final Israeli death toll from the October 7 attacks stands at 1,139, including 815 civilians and 324 soldiers, police, or security officers. This would suggest a civilian-to-combatant ratio of roughly 3.5:1, assuming all deaths were caused by Palestinian attackers.
Other accepted statistical breakdowns report 695 civilian deaths and 373 combatants, along with 71 foreigners. This highlights the ongoing debate over who should be classified as a civilian, as many off-duty soldiers and trained fighters took up arms during the attack, shifting their status from civilians to combatants.
According to a March 25 article written for Newsweek by John Spencer, chair of urban warfare studies at the Modern War Institute (MWI) at West Point, “Israel has created a new standard for urban warfare” in its war on Gaza. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu later cited Spencer’s article during his speech to U.S. Congress in July.
Spencer’s argument is flawed, as he relies on Israeli ratio claims that don’t hold up when examining the official death toll in Gaza, particularly when accounting for the women and children killed. Spencer references the 2016-2017 Battle of Mosul in Iraq to justify what he deems an acceptable civilian-to-combatant ratio in U.S. wars, highlighting a 4:1 ratio where 10,000 civilians were killed for every 2,000 ISIS fighters.
Using this military logic and assuming Hamas was responsible for every Israeli death on October 7, they achieved a more favorable civilian-to-combatant kill ratio than the U.S. did in Mosul. Notably, this was accomplished without the use of modern precision weapons.
Although this comparison may deviate from the core issue and is not an appropriate way to assess the events between Gaza and Israel, it is crucial to understand the logic behind the Israeli narrative about October 7 and what it continues to justify today.
Who Killed Who?
The October 7 assault began with a breach of the Separation Fence between the Gaza Strip and Israel, as rockets were launched to provide cover for Hamas fighters using paragliders. Suicide drones also targeted Israeli army monitoring equipment and automatic machine gun towers.
The attack, which Hamas named Operation Al-Aqsa Flood, initially targeted a series of military bases, outposts, and Israeli soldiers stationed at the Erez/Beit Hanoun Crossing. However, it also struck Israeli Kibbutzim, or settler communities, located around the Gaza periphery.
Various other civilian sites were also attacked, most notably the Nova Music Festival, where hundreds were reportedly killed. According to the Israeli narrative, Hamas intentionally targeted the festival. This account was echoed in a recent BBC documentary titled We Will Dance Again, which aligns with Israel’s version of events. The documentary’s director, Yariv Mozer, commented on the Nova Festival attack, reinforcing this interpretation.
A brutal fundamentalistic movement [Hamas] is obsessively looking to destroy the values of Western society. These were young people at a music festival celebrating life, love, and peace: very naïve and free-spirited. And they faced the most horrific people, who value death.”
However, as early as November, Israeli police reports concluded that Hamas had not initially planned to target the Nova Festival, with their primary objective being a nearby kibbutz, Re’im. Israel’s Channel 12 published findings from the first report, which included information from Hamas documents and interrogations. According to these sources, Hamas fighters only became aware of the festival during the operation and entered the grounds from a nearby highway.
According to a report published by Haaretz, police analysis found that most partygoers had fled the Nova Festival approximately half an hour before any gunfire was heard. Additionally, the report indicated that an Israeli military helicopter had opened fire, resulting in the deaths of some festival participants.
A United Nations human rights report, released on June 12, confirmed “the presence of at least eight attack helicopters in various locations” and noted that it was aware of reports suggesting these helicopters had been used to attack civilian vehicles at the festival site. The report further stated:
The Commission found that Israeli authorities prioritised identifying victims, notifying families and allowing for burial rather than forensic investigation, leading to evidence of crimes, especially sexual crimes, not being collected and preserved. The Commission also notes the loss of potential evidence due to inadequately trained first responders.
An investigation published in Yediot Aharonot in January concluded that at least 70 vehicles were destroyed by Israeli tank, drone, or helicopter fire, following orders from senior Israeli military command to prevent the capture of hostages “at any cost.” In December 2023, footage surfaced showing an Israeli tank firing on a civilian home in Kibbutz Be’eri. It was later confirmed that Israeli forces were responsible for the deaths of 13 Israeli civilians in that incident, further supporting these revelations.
Several videos show Hamas fighters engaging in violent actions within civilian areas, including indiscriminate firing, killing non-combatants, and throwing grenades into shelters. This evidence highlights instances of violence, but it does not conclusively prove that these actions were part of a broader premeditated strategy. There is still no definitive evidence regarding the full extent of responsibility for the majority of civilian deaths that occurred on October 7.
Another important consideration is that Hamas was not the only group involved in breaching the Gaza separation fence on October 7. At least five different Palestinian resistance groups reportedly followed suit, targeting Israeli military sites and settlements. It is estimated that over 4,000 people crossed the fence that day. While Hamas led the mission, it remains unclear how many Israeli deaths were caused by fighters from these other armed groups.
A “Mass Hannibal” Event?
Despite the questions raised by outlets such as The Cradle and the investigative articles published by Mondoweiss, the Electronic Intifada, and The Grayzone—which pointed to Israel’s infamous Hannibal Directive as a potential factor—this body of work has largely been dismissed and labeled as conspiracy theories.
It is important to note that the Hannibal Directive, a controversial Israeli military order designed to prevent the capture of soldiers—even if it means killing them—was acknowledged by Israeli Air Force Colonel Nof Erez in December 2023. He referred to October 7 as a “mass Hannibal” event. However, widespread acceptance of Israel’s implementation of the Hannibal Directive on that day only came after Israel’s Haaretz published a detailed article on July 7.
The bombshell Haaretz article, citing army sources, was released just before the results of an internal Israeli military investigation into the events of October 7 were published. The investigation confirmed that the Hannibal Directive had been triggered that day. However, it contained several inconsistencies, including a claim that Israeli tank fire did not kill any civilians at Kibbutz Be’eri. This assertion was later debunked by eyewitness accounts, forensic analysis, and video evidence, casting doubt on the investigation’s credibility and raising concerns about accountability within Israeli forces.
A recent investigation by ABC News effectively compiled all relevant information from Israeli sources regarding Israel’s use of the Hannibal Directive. The report laid to rest any doubts that the directive had not been implemented on a large scale, providing clear evidence that it played a significant role in the events of October 7.
40 Beheaded babies
Israeli media, government officials, and their Western counterparts have repeatedly circulated several unverified claims about the events of October 7. These included allegations such as the beheading of 40 babies, infants being hung on clothing lines, and a pregnant woman whose baby was reportedly cut from her womb.
Many of these stories were initially promoted by the ZAKA rescue agency, which has faced its own controversies, including corruption allegations. The organization was founded by Yehuda Meshi-Zahav, who has been accused of serious criminal offenses. According to confirmed reports, one baby tragically died on October 7, killed by a bullet during crossfire. Other claims regarding babies have been debunked.
During Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s July address to the U.S. Congress, he introduced a new narrative about October 7, claiming that two children hid in a basement only to be murdered by Hamas fighters. However, no record or evidence substantiates this claim, and no children matching the description have been reported.
There have also been allegations of a mass rape campaign carried out by Hamas on October 7, which have been featured in documentaries like Sheryl Sandberg’s Screams Before Silence. The documentary presents interrogation tapes from the Shin Bet as evidence of these claims. However, serious investigations have dismissed these tapes, as they were reportedly recorded under conditions of torture, making them unreliable sources of evidence.
Despite widespread reports from mainstream media outlets in the West that mass rapes occurred on October 7, Israeli police have not been able to verify any of the alleged incidents. There is currently no forensic evidence, documented intent, identified victims, or credible witnesses supporting these claims.
The largest investigation into the Hamas rape allegations, published by The New York Times, became controversial when the family of a woman cited as a central case in the story publicly refuted the claims. The article quickly became the subject of a scandal, further casting doubt on the validity of the allegations.
Praised across the media, an Israeli lawyer named Cochav Elkayam-Levy established what she was calling a “civilian commission” to investigate the Hamas rape campaign. Yet, despite all the positive press, she was later exposed for sharing countless fake rape stories and soliciting millions of dollars for a commission, of which she was the only member. This led to a number of Israeli government officials publicly distancing themselves from her and accusing her of “inaccurate” research.
At the request of the Israeli government, UN Special Representative Pramila Patten undertook an eight-day mission to gather evidence of sexual violence allegedly committed on October 7. This effort culminated in a report summarizing the findings. Although the nine UN experts involved in the trip did not have an official investigative mandate, they released some key observations from their visit.
The UN report concluded that Israelis were “subjected to various forms of conflict-related sexual violence,” though it stopped short of providing definitive conclusions. Instead, it stated that such incidents were possible. Notably, the report debunked two specific allegations as “unfounded.” One involved a woman reportedly found separated from her family with her pants pulled down. The investigation determined that a bomb squad had altered the “crime scene, and the bodies moved,” leading to uncertainty about the details of the alleged incident.
What The Evidence Says
The Hamas-led October 7 attack remains one of the most politicized events in recent history, with its details being used to justify the ongoing violence in Gaza. The facts surrounding the incident are still being debated, with various narratives continuing to twist the specifics of what occurred that day.
What is clear is that Hamas launched a coordinated military campaign on October 7, with the involvement of at least five other Palestinian resistance groups. The attack targeted Israeli military positions and settlement areas with the stated objectives of striking Israel’s southern command and capturing individuals to exchange for Palestinian detainees. During the course of these operations, intense firefights ensued, and numerous violations of international law were likely committed.
Many extreme claims about October 7, such as those involving babies and decapitated women, have been debunked. Verified cases of killings with light weapons occurred, and Israel’s invocation of the Hannibal Directive led to civilian deaths. While it’s difficult to determine how many were killed by Israeli forces versus Palestinian groups, the scale of destruction suggests Israel was responsible for a significant portion of the casualties.
Allegations of sexual violence on October 7 remain unproven. While individual cases may have occurred, no evidence supports claims of an orchestrated mass rape campaign. Investigations have not confirmed any specific cases but suggest such crimes could have occurred.
While the overall picture of October 7 has become clearer, an independent investigation is necessary to fully understand the events. Israel has blocked such an inquiry and destroyed evidence, likely fearing it would reveal inconvenient truths that could undermine what little public support remains for its ongoing military operations in Gaza, the West Bank, and Lebanon.
Feature photo | Illustration by MintPress News | Photo by AP
Robert Inlakesh is a political analyst, journalist and documentary filmmaker currently based in London, UK. He has reported from and lived in the occupied Palestinian territories and hosts the show ‘Palestine Files’. Director of ‘Steal of the Century: Trump’s Palestine-Israel Catastrophe’. Follow him on Twitter @falasteen47
