For many in the Republican National Committee, the thought of a blue Texas is giving them night terrors. Not only would a Democrat-controlled Texas all but shut out the Republicans from the White House, it would break the Republicans’ gerrymandered control of the House of Representatives, bring much of the nation’s commercial and industrial strength into Democrats’ hands and create a clear political demarcation — all of the largest, wealthiest states in the Union would all be blue (or, at least, a bluish-purple).
For Alex Steele, 31, field director of Battleground Texas, and for many other Democrats, the dream of a blue Texas is too much to resist. “Our goal is very simple,” Steele said of his group’s agenda. “It’s to turn Texas back into a battleground state by treating it like a battleground state.” Since 1976, Texas has been reliably red. National Democratic campaigns typically ignore the state, and the Democrats have not successfully fought and won a competitive race in a red district in the state since 1994.
But time is now on the Democrats’ side. Over the last quarter-century, the state has been losing population in the rural areas — where Republicans rule — and gaining in the urban areas — which are Democrat-friendly. More importantly, currently the state’s population is 45.3 percent White and declining, while the Hispanic population is at 37.6 percent of the population and rising.
For most trend-followers, it’s not a question of if Texas will turn blue, but when. While 65 percent of the state’s population growth from 2000 to 2010 came from Hispanic, Hispanics were only responsible for 22 percent of the vote, according to Mark Jones of Rice University. Jones has predicted that by 2030, the Hispanic voting population will rise to 43 percent of the electorate, as the White voting population will drop to 39 percent.
“It’s just a question of time before the state turns Democrat,” said Lloyd Potter, the Texas state demographer. “When that happens — 2020 to 2025? It could even happen before.”
However, in the short term, a major shift in the Texas power structure is unlikely. With Texas Gov. Rick Perry’s intentions to run for reelection unknown, and with the comptroller, lieutenant governor and secretaries of land, agriculture and railroad seats available, the Republicans are — more or less — tripping over each other to sign up for a spot in the primaries.
The Democrats have yet to name a candidate for any state office for 2014.
The Hispanic vote
Demographics is just a small part of a bigger puzzle. In 2012, 71 percent of all Hispanic voters voted for Obama. While polling numbers among Texas Hispanics were on par with national statistics, only 44 percent of the Hispanics in Texas are eligible to vote — compared to 78 percent of the White population, according to Pew Research. Without the 2.2 million Hispanic voters that could have voted in 2012 but didn’t, the path toward the return of Democrats to Texas becomes much longer.
But with those 2.2 million voting and voting predominantly Democrat, the Republicans could — theoretically — be factored out of the national power equation.
“Demography is inexorably pushing Texas from solid Republican state to swing state over time.” said Matthew Dowd, an Austin-based political analyst who was a principal strategist for President George W. Bush. “And it is a serious problem for Republicans in putting together a winning electoral coalition as Texas does move to a swing state.”
This plays heavily into the immigration debate. As Hispanics traditionally vote Democrat, it benefits the Republicans to deny as many undocumented residents and new immigrants the vote for as long as possible. With the current fight for immigration reform taking place in the Senate, the Republicans are in a no-win situation. According to a June 13 FOX News poll, 76 percent of all Americans want Congress to pass major immigration reform this year, and 74 percent favor a road to citizenship for the undocumented residents already in this country. Most in the Republican caucus now recognize that immigration reform will make or break the party in 2016 and 2018.
“I am confident in the light of the changing demographics of the country, it would have huge political consequences in the presidential election and the congressional elections after that,” said Jim Manley, a Democratic strategist with the Campaign for an Accountable, Moral and Balanced Immigration Overhaul.
Friday, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush argued in support of immigration reform on the basis that the aging American population needs new vitality. “Immigrants create far more businesses than native-born Americans over the last 20 years. Immigrants are more fertile, and they love families, and they have more intact families, and they bring a younger population. Immigrants create an engine of economic prosperity,” Bush said at the annual Faith and Freedom conference in Washington.
So, the Republicans recognize that they must make concessions on immigration reform. At the same time, they recognize the risk that in doing so they improve the Democrats’ power base. It is this struggle that is at the core of the Republicans’ infighting on the issue and the main reason why many analysts fear that a Senate bill will ultimately be challenged in the House.
Realities and difficulties
Despite all of this, Texas Republicans are not worried for two reasons. Recently, Perry dismissed the notion of Texas becoming a battleground state as “a pipe dream.” Republicans have won the last 102 statewide elections in Texas, and they see hope in the roughly 30 percent of the Hispanic vote that did not go to the Democrats.
“Republicans are going to win all the statewide races in the next cycle in 2014 because the state leans 10 points more Republican than Democrat,” said Mike Baselice, a Republican polling expert. He feels that with only 35 percent of the Hispanic vote, the Republicans still can maintain their lock on state office for the foreseeable future.
The second reason is money. Major corporate donors — such as ConocoPhillips, Koch Industries, the Beecherl Companies and Meeker & Co. — have invested stakes in making sure Republicans stay in control in Texas and are willing to spend the money to see it happen.
However, many feel that a single catalyst — such as the presidential run of Hillary Clinton in 2016, who is heavily favored among Hispanics — would be enough to make Texas competitive. This reality has not been lost on state Republicans.
“One thing that requires ongoing vigilance is the reality that the state of Texas is coming under a new assault, an assault far more dangerous than what the leader of North Korea threatened when he said he was going to add Austin, Texas, as one of the recipients of his nuclear weapons,” Texas Attorney General Greg Abbott told the McLennan County Republican Club on Monday in regards to Battleground Texas, according to the Waco Tribune. “The threat that we’re getting is the threat from the Obama administration and his political machine.”