On the heels of the toppling of the Bashar al-Assad government in Damascus, the United States has directed the emerging transitional order toward a neoliberal economic framework, coupled with efforts to normalize relations with Israel. Through a combination of sanctions, terrorist designations, and strategic foreign aid, U.S. policymakers and think tanks are actively shaping the blueprint for a new Syria.
With the collapse of the Syrian government in Damascus, the American foreign policy establishment has been diligently working to exploit the country’s instability to its advantage. A revealing article published by the Washington-based Atlantic Council, “A Blueprint for Bringing About a New Syria,” outlined a strategy to leverage Syria’s dire economic conditions as a tool for shaping its future.
When it comes to planning for the country’s reconstruction, the international community has a lot of new leverage in the wake of Assad’s flight. No entity will be able to effectively run the country without near-total dependence on foreign aid. Using that leverage to make sure the reconstruction of Syria unfolds more successfully than Iraq’s or Afghanistan’s should be the next priority.
The United States government funneled billions of dollars into its regime-change efforts in Syria, most notably through the CIA’s infamous Operation Timber Sycamore. However, American strategy shifted during Donald Trump’s first term, pivoting in 2019 to the “Caesar Act” sanctions campaign. This policy effectively halted reconstruction efforts, suffocated civilian life, and deepened the impoverishment of Syrians residing in government-controlled areas.
The United States further collaborated with the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in the northeast and with mercenary groups in the al-Tanf region to establish a de facto occupation over a third of Syria’s territory. In a candid admission, Donald Trump stated that the U.S. presence was “only there for the oil,” referencing the al-Omar oil fields east of the Euphrates River. By severing access to natural resources and much of Syria’s fertile lands from areas under Assad’s control, this strategy compounded the effects of the maximum pressure campaign.
In 2020, as the fighting in Syria began to wane, a subcommittee hearing of the House Foreign Affairs Committee revealed a striking perspective on U.S. policy. Dana Stroul, who would later serve as Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense (DASD) for the Middle East under the Biden administration, argued for leveraging future violence between the Syrian Arab Army and Idlib-based factions to advance American interests. In her remarks, Stroul declared, “Here is our opportunity.”
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)—formerly known as al-Qaeda in Syria—now controls the new Syrian Salvation Government in Damascus. The group proclaims that it intends to build a nation for all Syrians, but despite those lofty declarations, it must now rebrand itself as a Syria-focused organization.
The head of the new Syrian government’s Chambers of Commerce has confirmed that Damascus will embrace a free-market economy, signaling its alignment with a neoliberal model in line with U.S. preferences. This development coincides with a diplomatic push by senior Biden administration officials, who currently touring West Asia. President Biden has pledged to deliver aid to Damascus, describing the fall of Assad as “a moment of historic opportunity.”
At the same time, discussions are underway that could result in Hayat Tahrir al-Sham being removed from the terrorist lists maintained by the United States, the United Kingdom, and the United Nations. In contrast, American policymakers have expressed reluctance to lift sanctions on Syria altogether, deeming it “far too early” for such a move. Instead, advocating for limited sanctions relief.
A similar strategy played out recently in Sudan following the ousting of longtime dictator Omar al-Bashir. Rather than providing immediate aid, lifting sanctions, or clearing debt, the U.S. leveraged these measures to pressure Sudan’s transitional government into normalizing relations with Israel.
To steer Syria’s transitional government in its preferred direction, the U.S. seems to be leveraging its joint control over northeastern Syria’s fertile lands and resource wealth. While the SDF considers a potential agreement with HTS, the U.S. holds the power to ensure that any progress remains limited to a mere cessation of violence.
As Israel intensifies its invasion of Syria, occupying additional territory and launching frequent airstrikes, the Syrian government in Damascus has notably refrained from condemning the illegal offensive or the accompanying land grabs.
The brother tried to warn the audience about colonial powers attempting to divert the revolution’s path, but he was forcibly stopped. pic.twitter.com/5V212NePK0
— Muslim Hind️ (@Al_HindMuslims) December 12, 2024
Meanwhile, Damascus and Aleppo—Syria’s two largest cities—remain under the control of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). Across western Syria, however, a patchwork of al-Qaeda-linked groups operates with relative freedom, fueling field executions and sectarian violence. Given the history of U.S., UK, Turkish, Qatari, and Israeli intelligence agencies backing various factions of these groups, fears persist that they could be weaponized again at any moment.
The U.S.-backed mercenary forces previously stationed in al-Tanf, along the Jordanian-Syrian border, remain under Washington’s direct control. These forces represent a potential lever for the United States, poised to be weaponized should Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) deviate from American interests.
While HTS presents a more reformed image, tensions simmer beneath the surface. Many ideologically committed fighters within its ranks may come to resent the transitional government’s more secular orientation, raising the specter of internal conflict. This fragile dynamic underscores the precarious balance within Syria’s fractured political and military landscape.
These converging factors are set to clash with the aspirations of the Syrian public, who increasingly voice dissatisfaction with the transitional government and demand a truly independent, democratic nation. Compounding the challenge is the widespread support for the Palestinian cause among Syrians, which presents a serious legitimacy test for any government that openly aligns itself with Israel.
Feature photo | Syrian Rebels, Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and Turkish-backed Syrian militias called the Syrian National Army forces take control in Hama, west-central Syria. Ugur Yildirim | AP
Robert Inlakesh is a political analyst, journalist and documentary filmmaker currently based in London, UK. He has reported from and lived in the occupied Palestinian territories and hosts the show ‘Palestine Files’. Director of ‘Steal of the Century: Trump’s Palestine-Israel Catastrophe’. Follow him on Twitter @falasteen47
