As Egypt’s turmoil deepens, analysts believe the embattled Muslim Brotherhood is committing political suicide by continuing street protests in an attempt to reinstate deposed President Mohamed Morsi. They say the Islamist group’s struggle portends a painful return to its all-too familiar role as opposition.
This past weekend witnessed the deadliest single outbreak of violence since Morsi’s ouster on July 3 by the military. At least 72 people were killed in violent clashes between Islamist supporters of Morsi and armed civilians backed by security personnel, according to authorities. The Brotherhood puts the number at more than 120. Before Saturday, some 180 people had been killed in clashes across Egypt.
Both the Brotherhood and the military-backed interim government are upping the ante as the struggle for power escalates.
Political analyst Said Shehata called it “suicide” for the Brotherhood, “if the daily level of violence and clashes continues for long.”
“It is a matter of time before protesters are forcibly evacuated” from the Nasr City area where the Brotherhood supporters have staged their biggest demonstrations in Cairo, he wrote in Egypt’s Al-Ahram Online daily. Egypt’s interior minister has warned that any attempts to destabilize the country will be met with force.
Crackdown anticipated
A major crackdown is soon expected on Morsi supporters occupying two prominent Cairo squares and staging protests elsewhere in the nearly month-long standoff with the security forces. Nasr City residents are also filing lawsuits against the Brotherhood as garbage piles up and important roads are blocked.
Meanwhile, Egypt’s interim president has given the prime minister the power to grant the military the right to arrest civilians after the weekend violence. Police have arrested two leaders of the Brotherhood-allied Islamist Wasat Party.
For its part, the Brotherhood and those loyal to Morsi have called for a “million-man march” on Tuesday. Others are marching on headquarters of military intelligence and other institutions, defying orders by authorities not to do so.
Shehata criticized the Brotherhood leadership, especially supreme guide Mohamed Badie and politician Mohamed al-Beltagi, saying they are putting the organization and Egypt in “danger of escalated violence and instability.”
Instead, he said the focus must now be on tackling dire economic problems such as unemployment, food insecurity and poverty made worse by unrest since Morsi’s tenure and President Hosni Mubarak’s ouster in January 2011.
Police denied shooting pro-Morsi supporters with live ammunition, saying it only used teargas. But health workers at a makeshift field hospital said victims were shot in the head and chest. Human Rights Watch call them “targeted killings.” Police later released a video showing the protesters throwing rocks at security forces and setting fires.
Meanwhile, activists with the Tamarod (“Rebel”) campaign, which initially galvanized massive nationwide rallies demanding the military intervene and unseat Morsi, condemned the violence. It demanded the interior minister’s resignation and urged a probe into incidents of “excessive force.”
Tamarod spokesman Mahmoud Badr said the activists will “never accept the return of Mubarak’s state security [apparatus] or chasing down political activists under any name.”
Brotherhood in danger?
Samer S. Shehata, an authority on the Brotherhood who teaches at the University of Oklahoma, said the continuing violence places the Islamist organization in an increasingly dangerous posture, with limited options.
“They really can’t resort to violence — they don’t have a militia and it runs against all their rhetoric and recent history,” the professor told The New York Times.
It’s also believed that authorities may slap a broad legal ban on the group. It would resemble those in place under Mubarak and past leaders, under which the organization was forced underground and unable to participate legally in politics. It is unclear whether such a ban can be avoided, even if the group agrees to dismantle the sit-ins and withdraw its demands for Morsi’s reinstatement.
Other writers, however, such as F. Michael Maloof, claim the Brotherhood may have nefarious plans underway. He alleges that Brotherhood chairman Badie wants to see a “Free Egyptian Army” created in a bid to return Morsi to power.
While those allegations could not be independently verified, analysts believe that if even remotely true, increased confrontations with Egypt’s military are expected, thus raising the specter of greater instability and the prospect of civil war itself.
Interim President Adli Mansour, who was the country’s prosecutor-general before his appointment by the military, has pledged to fight those driving the nation “towards chaos.”
Meanwhile, Brotherhood senior advisor Gehad el-Haddad vowed supporters were “willing to die” to return Egypt’s first democratically elected president to office.
Brotherhood can’t let go of power
Analyst Said Shehata said the Brotherhood, which tasted power for the first time in Egypt since its founding in 1928, is finding it “very hard to let go without a fight.” He said the group tends to view politics as a “zero-sum” game where they win everything or lose everything.
“The main problem is that the Muslim Brotherhood does not realize they are in real trouble,” said Mustafa Kamel al-Sayed, a political science professor at Cairo University.
“The group attempts to use its victims in protests to achieve political gains, win sympathy of many Egyptians and get international support to pressure and embarrass the current interim government,” he asserted.
Secretary of State John Kerry urged authorities to respect the right to peaceful protest and for an independent inquiry into the violence. He called on all sides to enter a “meaningful political dialogue” to “help their country take a step back from the brink.”
The European Union’s chief diplomat Catherine Ashton met all sides in Cairo calling for a “fully inclusive transition process, taking in all political groups, including the Brotherhood.”
“This process must lead — as soon as possible — to constitutional order, free and fair elections and a civilian-led government. I will also repeat my call to end all violence,” she said.
Cairo University’s Al-Sayed believes the Brotherhood is playing with fire and faced the real possibility of further rejection by many Egyptians, including state institutions such as the media, the armed forces, police and judiciary.
Said Shehata believes that only when the Brotherhood is weakened does it cooperate with others and accept compromise. “They are not victims anymore, as they were stereotyped for a long time. They are not in a strong position in comparison to the pre-January 25 Revolution period.”
Calls for reconciliation
The ideal scenario for the Brotherhood and Egypt would to strike a deal with the current regime, he said.
Islamist thinker and former presidential candidate Mohamed Selim el-Awa has proposed an initiative. While unlikely to be accepted, the plan envisions the president delegating his entire powers to a new interim cabinet which in turn replaces the current interim government.
Egypt’s other main Islamist group, the Salafist party al-Nour, said the current political standoff can only be resolved through negotiation. Proposals including, el-Awa’s could serve as a basis for talks, if some of its terms were amended, the group said.
Some ordinary Egyptians have banded together under the “Third Square Movement,” saying they neither want a “military dictatorship nor an Islamic state.” “I want to tell both sides to stop” the political deadlock, said one woman, who withheld her name.
Political analyst Fawaz Gerges of the London School of Economics said the calls by both the Brotherhood and the military to amass Egyptians into the streets last Friday amounted to “a culture war” for legitimacy to see who could “mobilize the numbers” and take “political control of public spaces.”
Army chief Abdel Fatah el-Sisi urged rallies to give the military a mandate to confront what he called “violence and terrorism,” and indeed, Egyptians turned out in huge numbers. Some commentators believe it was a sign of public support to break up the Brotherhood protests.
Gerges warned, however, that democracy will not be realized in Egypt “by fighting on the streets.” The escalating crisis did “not bode well for the fragile democracy” in the Arab world’s most populous country, he said.
Researcher Ahmed Baan recommended the Brotherhood realize that political struggle has its own “democratic techniques” and that the majority of Egyptians actually support the military’s roadmap for the future.
“Times do not go backward and Islamists should favor the country’s common good over short-term personal and factional interests,” said the analyst based at the Nile Center for Economic and Strategic Studies in Cairo.